For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique-is developed. During its life cycle, cyclone Ockhi underwent rapid, later in its mature stage. Cyclone Ockhi: 10 Point-Guide To Be Disaster-Ready . The RI is defined as an increase of intensity 30 kt (15.4 ms-1) during 24 hrs, which represents approximately the 93rd percentile of 24 hrs intensity changes of tropical cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during 1981-2010. TCP-28, World Meteorological, Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise, Bandyopadhyay, B. K., Evaluation of official tropical cyclone, north Indian Ocean (from 1891 onwards). analysis using these geomatics technique. Relative vorticity is one of the important dy-, vital for cyclone formation, as high relative vorticity pro-, Relative humidity is one of the thermodynamic variables, cient moistening of middle atmosphere is a necessary, condition for genesis and intensification of cyclones, Vertical wind shear of horizontal winds is one of the. Blue, from 28 November to 1 December 2017. Therefore, modified GPP, indicated the signature of genesis of cyclone Ockhi two, days in advance compared to the atmosphere-only GPP, which showed cyclogenesis signature only one day in, advance. Cyclone Ockhi has travelled almost 4000 nautical miles after originating in the Gulf of Thailand and has had an unusually long life. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Mini, stry of Earth Sciences, Pune 411 008, India, Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savi, tribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411 007, India, , a total of 884 casualties were reported for India and, . Neumann, C. J., The International Best Track Arch, performance of the data assimilation system, role in the tropical circulation. Most of the severe cyclones are forming over the UOHC range between 40–80 kj/cm2 in the Bay of Bengal. Land-use classes show coherence losses to below 0.5 for each disaster. © 2008-2021 ResearchGate GmbH. In this study an attempt has been made to show the importance of the upper ocean parameters known as the upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and the UOHC with stratification (UOHCS). ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication. on the methodology adapted from Wheeler and Hendon, In order to compare the role of the ocean and atmospheric, conditions on the genesis of cyclone Ockhi, we estimated, fied-GPP which incorporates ocean conditions. On December 5, 2017, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired the second image, a natural-color view of Ockhi as the storm neared landfall. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Ockhi over Bay of Bengal: 06-09 December: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal: Extended Range Outlook Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis. level of almost all the reservoirs, lakes and ponds in the stu, storage is 156 feet. Similarly, the LPE is less during the post-monsoon season than during pre-monsoon season. Prediction of Heavy Rainfall Events over Indian region using High Resolution Datasets and Modelling. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC landfall forecast issued by IMD during 2003–2013 (11 years) by calculating the landfall point forecast error (LPE) and landfall time forecast error (LTE). The indices consisted of near-infrared to red ratios, normalized difference vegetation index, Tasseled Cap index of greenness, brightness, and wetness (TCW), and soil-adjusted vegetation index. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are embedded in regions where the upper-level divergence, lower-level relative vorticity and relative humidity are more and vertical winds shear is less than certain threshold values of the respective variables. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. November) season including atmosphere–ocean parameters. On its track, Ockhi cast severe damages to. a, Cyclone Ockhi as on 30 November 2017 (image credit: NASA/NOAA/NRL). Super Cyclone Pam (2015) formed in the central tropical Pacific under conditions that included El Nino Modoki and the passage of a convectively-enhanced phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the western Pacific. rapid warming in the basin will continue into the future. The Indian Navy has launched search and rescue operations in southern part of the state. Earlier studies have shown that SST plays a major, role in enhancing ACE, indicating long duration and high, was the fourth strongest cyclone in the Arabian Sea dur-, ing the post-monsoon season in the last 28 years. The algorithms included univariate image differencing (UID), selective principal component analysis (PCA), change vector analysis (CVA), and postclassification comparison (PCC). Thus, this study highlights the significance of ocean coupling with TC models to advance forecast guidance. This study examines the influence that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have on the MJO and low-frequency large-scale circulation, and establishes how they modulated, The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. The favourable thermodynamic conditions due to, warm sea-surface temperature over southeast. Plain (IGP). Generally, the cyc-, lones which form in the Arabian Sea make a landfall, causing severe damage to life and property in the densely, climate models project continued rapid warming of the, spheric Science Paper No. However, there is still scope for further reduction in 48 and 72-hr forecast errors over the NIO to about 50 and 100 km respectively based on the latest technology including aircraft reconnaissance, deployment of buoys, and assimilation of more observational data from satellite and Doppler weather radars, etc., in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models during the next five years. To illustrate this, we present an application that constructs obstruction-free composites of images acquired on different dates in support of a method for vegetation change detection. In pics: Cyclone Ockhi leaves a trail of death and destruction in south India According to latest reports, the cyclone has claimed the lives of 40 people with 475 fishermen rescued so far. ., The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and, Gray, W. M., Hurricane and their formation, Kotal, S. D., Kundu, P. D. and Bhowmik, S. K. R., Analysis of, Leipper, D. F. and Volgenau, L. D., Hurricane heat potential of the, Wheeler, M. C. and Hendon, H. H., An all-season real-time multi-, Kotal, S. D. and Bhattacharya, S. K., Tropical cyclone genesis, Maneesha, K., Sadhuram, Y. and Prasad, K. V. S. R., Role of. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c), Abstract Flawless subseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution over the narrow basin of North Indian Ocean (NIO) demands accurate rendition of the crucial parameters that influence the development of cyclonic storms. ACE accounts for the com-, bined strength and duration of tropical cyclones, calculated by summing the squares of the six-, mum sustained surface wind speed (kt) during the dura-, or higher. based on IMD cyclone data for the Arabian Sea post-, monsoon season (October–December) during the period, Cyclone Ockhi developed as a depression on 29 Novem-, ber 2017 0300 UTC in the Lakshadweep Sea, south of, from 29 to 30 November under the influence of upper, sified to a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained wind, to move in the northwest direction till 2 December and, attained a peak wind speed of 85 kt (43.7, December 0300 UTC, cyclone Ockhi changed its direc-, tion due to the influence of an upper-level anticyclone, which was anchored over the eastern parts of the Indian, southerly steering over the central Arabian Sea, resulting, in the cyclone to move in a northward direction. Ockhi had a clockwise recurving track. iv. From 4 December 1500 UTC, cyclone Ockhi. b, Track of cyclone Ockhi. All India Edited by Richa Taneja. The Atlantic basin typically shows the smallest modulations in most large-scale fields of any tropical cyclone basins; however, it still experiences significant modulations in tropical cyclone activity. since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and These comparisons show that the RI cases generally occur at higher latitude and are intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12 hrs than the non-RI cases. Before the cyclone impact the wate, Ockhi impact in the study area, the cultivated land like paddy, figure 10 illustrates the increase and decrease in the total area, km2 after the cyclone. The frequency of natural disasters like floods, cyclones etc have increased significantly over the last decade particularly in the coastal line of Bangladesh which is asserted as the impact of climate change. dynamic parameters included in the estimation of GPP, since low wind shear favours cyclone formation as it, thermodynamic parameter included in its calculation, as it, provides atmospheric instability necessary for the deve-, these atmospheric variables important for. The SST runs improve landfall position and time prediction by 20% and 33% respectively. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. In the Committee’s meeting held on 20th December, 2017, the Home Secretary briefed the Committee about the development of the Cyclone Ockhi and its rapid intensification from … There is significant decrease in LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to 2003–2008 due to the modernisation programme of IMD. Detected areas of disturbed forestlands were noticeable in two groups: 180,832-264,617 and 85,861-124,205 ha. This study compared performance of four change detection algorithms with six vegetation indices derived from pre- and post-Katrina Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and a composite of the TM bands 4, 5, and 3 in order to select an optimal remote sensing technique for identifying forestlands disturbed by Hurricane Katrina. The RII technique is developed by combining threshold (index) values of the eight variables for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering < 1000 km². cyclone records. atmospheric conditions in cyclone forecast models. The LPEs are less for climatologically moving/straight moving TCs than for the recurving/looping TCs. This type of project is the need of the hour where there is water scarcity. The probabilistic rapid intensification forecasts are found to be skillful compared to climatology. Cyclone Ockhi in November 2017, was the first very severe cyclone to form over the Lakshadweep Sea since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and Sri Lanka. It also became the first very severe cyclonic. Figure 1: Track of Cyclone Ockhi from 29 November to 5th December 2017 The upper ocean responses associated with tropical cyclones includes reduction in SST along the storm track, changes in thermocline, surface mixed layer depth and associated upwelling [6]. that exists in this type of complex zones. Track of Ockhi from 29 November to 6 December is given in Figure 1. The landscape of disturbed forests also displayed two unique patterns, depending upon the area group. The 12 hour average translational speed of the cyclone was 15.0 kmph. Most of the severe cyclones during pre-monsoon (April and May) and post-monsoon (October and November) seasons hit the east coast of India, causing colossal loss of life and damage to property. Prevailing thermo-, dynamic conditions mentioned above favour rapid, intensification of cyclones, as shown in previous studies, that high SSTs along with thermodynamically unstable, November to 1 December 2017. Earlier studies, have shown that upper ocean heat content plays an impor-, over the Bay of Bengal, as warm subsurface water helps, compensate the wind-driven mixing-induced cooling dur-, favour intensification in the Bay of Bengal, example is cyclone Nargis in the Bay of Bengal, which, intensified rapidly when it moved over a region of high, SST and atmospheric parameters, upper ocean heat con-, tent also plays a major role in cyclone genesis and inten-, modified GPP (eq. Many problems which involve organizing data into homogeneous groups can be approached by defining a function for evaluating the amount of structure present in a given partition of the set of data, and then attempting to find that partition for which the function is optimized. The ninth depression, and the third and strongest named storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Ockhi originated from an area of low pressure that formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal on November 28. Previous studies have shown that, filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), MJO in phase 4 is conducive for cyclogenesis in the, south of Bay of Bengal by ensuing increased vorticity and, ed from phase 3 to phase 4, it resulted in anomalous, westerlies over the entire south Bay of Bengal (near the, equator) in response to the shift in the convection centre, westerlies in the south occurred along with ano, easterlies over a narrow zone centred near 10, wind pattern led to the development of cyclonic circula-, tion which along with anomalous high SSTs mentioned, above provided conducive conditions for the genesis of. Volcanic activity, cyclone etc., Cyclone Ockhi 1) Introduction The recent Cyclone Ockhi was the most intense tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea since Cyclone Megh in 2015. The distance travelled, duration and accumulated cyclone energy were significantly larger for cyclone Ockhi, in comparison with the climatologi-cal cyclone records. Cyclone Ockhi continues to weaken gradually and is now seen as a Deep Depression over east-central Arabian Sea. A threshold, day prior to cyclone formation, GPP over the region was, in the range 20–30 and on the day of genesis (29 Novem-, ber 2017) it exceeded the threshold (>30). It is well known that the frequency of cyclones is about four times higher over the Bay of Bengal when compared with the Arabian Sea. Track of Ockhi Cyclone by WikiProject Tropical, Tamil Nadu and roughly covers an area around 2, by monsoonal precipitation which is the main, maximum rainfall to the study area. Coastline positions were highlighted to infer the erosion/accretion sectors along the coast, and the coastline changes were calculated. intensify from a depression to a cyclonic storm. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Rarely do re-curving cyclones pose a mortal threat to Indian coasts and Cyclone Ockhi raised hackles because it had already left a certain amount of damage and threatened Gujarat and Maharashtra. delineate the interface line of island surface and seawater. Disturbed forests were identified by classifying the composite and the continuous change imagery with the supervised classification method. In addition to the atmospheric parameters from ocean-side, UOHC and stratification appear to be the best parameters to examine the intensification and movement of the cyclones during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons over the Bay of Bengal. The present analysis using a modified-GPP shows, that along with atmospheric conditions, the ocean surface, and subsurface also played a significant role in cycloge-. Several studies on tropical cyclone genesis potential index (GPI) mainly using atmospheric parameters (relative/absolute vorticity, relative humidity, vertical wind shear, potential instability, vertical velocity etc.) Very high precipitation rate is observed just before Ockhi developed into a VSCS, which gradually suppressed and recorded lower precipitation rates as Ockhi continued to remain mature from 1 to 4 December. Rainfall intensity and radial distribution is also improved in SST run. The storm organized into a Depression off southeast coast of Sri Lanka on November 29… constructed and converted into buildup lands from 1992 to 2015. This study aims at assessing the effects of different strategies for groundwater recharge and storage in Indira Sagar Canal Command Area, Madhya Pradesh, India. Water management strategies and feedbacks of water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the IGP basin level. ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication. requires some ingredients, such as, response, incident mapping, establishing priorities, developing action plans and implementing the plan to protect lives, property and the environment. accumulated cyclone energy were significantly larger The distance travelled, duration and, accumulated cyclone energy were significantly larger, for cyclone Ockhi, in comparison with the clim, cal cyclone records. Bl, 30 has been used by IMD to identify the poten-, ). Thus, cyclone Ockhi intensified from a depression to a cyclonic, storm very quickly, compared to the climatological time, provements in the prediction of genesis, intensity and, track of cyclones in the north Indian Ocean in the recent, The model forecasts could capture this system only 1–2, to 2 December 0000 UTC, it underwent rapid intensifica-, category with a wind speed of 80 kt (41.2, 0600 UTC. During this time period, it intensified rapidly, and reached the very severe cyclonic storm category; its, movement of the cyclone over the southeast Arabian Sea, cation with high SST anomalies providing large specific, humidity and large positive difference in the equivalent, potential temperature anomalies between 1000 an, conditions over the southeast Arabian Sea on 30 Novem-, ber and 1 December 2017, led the system to undergo. By 4, December 1800 UTC, the intensity of the cyclone had, reduced to a severe cyclonic storm and it moved in the, northeastward direction, due to the influence of the upper. The consequences of these disasters are a huge loss of lives and properties that implicates the economy of the country. From this analysis, it is concluded that the barren land is drastically occupied, The present study is to assess the impact of updating realistic SST in TC lifetime on track, intensity and rainfall of TCs. Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal, Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index for Bay of Bengal During Peak Post-Monsoon (October-November) Season Including Atmosphere-Ocean Parameters, Role of upper ocean parameters in the genesis, intensification and tracks of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, Evaluation of official tropical cyclone landfall forecast issued by India Meteorological Department, The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Impacts on Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity, Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, Tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and it's application over the north Indian Sea, Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and a Rapid Intensification (RI) index, The NCEP/NCAR 40-years reanalysis project, CHANSE: Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, IndOOS, the Indian Ocean Observing System, Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020), Springer Nature (Open Access). Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. unusual long track was steered by upper-level winds. The study focuses on two study areas: San Juan in Puerto Rico, which was affected by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, and Sarpol Zahab in Iran, which was one of the towns affected by an earthquake in November 2017. Star denotes the position of th, region led to unfavourable conditions for the cyclone and, 5 December 0300 UTC, the intensity of cyclone Ockhi, Thereafter, it weakened rapidly to a depression by 5, visible along the track of cyclone Ockhi in Figure 6, that there is two-way feedback between cyclone Ockhi, and the ocean underneath. Star denotes the position of the cyclone on each day (track colour denoting wind speed (kt); same as in Figure 1 b). Also described is a general hill-climbing algorithm which can be used with any measure of structure to attempt to climb to the optimum partition. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. The number of rapid intensification periods are also shown to increase when the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is impacting a particular tropical cyclone basin. rapid intensification of the cyclone highlights th, for efficiently incorporating the coupled ocean–, future storms since climate projections indicate that, the rapid warming in the basin will continue into the, ral disasters on earth. The results suggested that low-frequency westerly winds at 850 hPa (U850) were intensified in the central tropical Pacific due to the observed SSTA. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Patnaik, K. V. K. R. K., Maneesha, K., Sadhuram, Y., Prasad, K. Lin, I. I., Chen, C. H., Pun, I. F., Liu, W. T. and Wu, C. C., Warm, Kotal, S. D. and Roy Bhowmik, S. K., Large-scale, Klotzbach, P. J., Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over, Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A. and Underwood, S., Increasing. Cyclone Ockhi in November 2017, was the first very severe cyclone to form over the Lakshadweep Sea since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and Sri Lanka. The origin of Ockhi can be tracked to an area of low pressure that formed in the eastern Andaman Sea on 21 st November 2017. The ninth depression and fifth named storm of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone Season, Burevi originated from a low pressure area which formed on November 28. Daily averaged ERA‐5 and ERA‐Interim data sets are used for analysis and comparison of selected cyclonic storms over NIO for the period 1989–2018. Northern Chennai is highly urbanized due to rapid industrialization, in this Manuscript, we are present a The 3-hourly cyclone Ockhi track and a detailed report can be found elsewhere (refer to Table S2). It intensified rapid, depression to a cyclone in a span of 9 h and further to, a very severe cyclone in 24 h. The present study sh, that the Madden–Julian Oscillation and warm oceanic, conditions provided favourable dynamic and thermo-. This study showed a continuous decrease in agricultural lands in Med{stroke}imurje County. A Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The PCC algorithm along with the composite image contributed the highest accuracy and lowest error (0.5%) in estimating areas of disturbed forestlands. Landsat 8 imageries of Pre and Post Ockhi where compared and changes made by cyclone Ockhi has been estimated in the present study. Cyclonic Storm Burevi was a weak tropical cyclone which made landfall in Sri Lanka, becoming the first to do so since a depression in 2014, and brought minimal impact to Southern India in December 2020. An integrated Remote sensing and GIS study has been conducted to estimate impact of Ockhi on Landuse and Landcover of Kanyakumari District. This study evaluates Land Use and Land Cover (LU/LC) changes in Med{stroke}imurje County, Croatia, from 1978-1992, 1992-2007 and 1978-2007 using Landsat satellite images. The average LPE is about 67, 95, and 124 km and LTE is about 4, 7, and 2 hrs, respectively for 24, 48, and 72-hr forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009–2013. Very heavy rain is forecast for south Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and south Kerala for the next 24 hours. Cyclone risk in terms of casualty is assessed considering the hazard and vulnerability analysis for the study area which can be implied to give a signal of awareness to the local community and the decision makers to provide advance planning for cyclone disaster management. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. started weakening as it moved over the eas, and low equivalent potential temperatures (Figure 6, along with high vertical shear of horizontal winds with, tial temperature between 1000 and 700 hPa and (, Ockhi from its day of formation. The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. The groundwater storage of some village is found to be increasing after the canal construction (land-use change). Update on December 5, 2017 6:50 PM: Cyclone Ockhi weakens into deep depression, may or may not cross Gujarat coast. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. Thus IGPP can be implemented operationally for improving the real‐time prediction of cyclogenesis and storm evolution over NIO. Kiliyar Sub-basin of Palar River Basin, Tamil Nadu, GIS.EnviroGeoChimicaActa, 2014.l.1(5):403. The UOHCS was high ranging from 50–400 kj/cm2 compared to the Pacific Ocean, which is due to high stratification (S ∼2–4). The figures a, ), which is about 2.5 times higher than the, ). During the initial stage, it i, sified rapidly from a depression to a cyclonic storm from, 29 November 1800 UTC to 30 November 0300 UTC in a, cially over Lakshadweep Sea, which persisted from 26 to, positive SST anomalies were conducive to persistent in-, crease in humidity over the region, as observed in the, specific humidity anomalies, which were as large as 8–, anomalies potentially led to thermodynamically unstable, conditions, as observed from the increase in difference of, equivalent potential temperature anomalies between 1000, was also consistent with the anomalously high CAPE, depression moved over the region with favourable ther-, modynamic conditions, it intensified rapidly to a deep, depression and further to a cyclone in just 9, Indian Ocean, for the post-monsoon cyclones, the proba-, bility of intensification of a system from a depression to a, from a depression to a cyclonic storm in only 9 h, as seen, in cyclone Ockhi, is a rare occurrence. 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